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Gold and Silver’s 2026 Melt Up: What’s Driving the Runup, How Bullion Markets Are Behaving, and Why Some Analysts Still See Higher Targets

Precious metals have entered a phase that commodities traders recognize instantly: a macro driven repricing that begins as a “safe haven bid,” then turns into a flows story, and finally starts to stress real world supply chains. In late January 2026, gold has printed fresh record highs above $5,000 and then pushed materially higher, with the Financial Times noting a new record above roughly $5,300 as the U.S. dollar slid and investors questioned whether government bonds still hedge risk the way they used to. That last point matters. When traditional ballast stops acting like ballast, capital reaches for assets that do not rely on any issuer’s balance sheet. Gold is the first stop.

Silver has joined the move with far more torque. In the same window, major outlets have described a “silver squeeze” dynamic, with silver prices moving into triple digits and pressure showing up in end user industries, especially solar. The FT reported silver around $112 and highlighted how the metal has become a much larger share of solar module production costs, prompting substitution and “thrifting” efforts. Whether every number in any single article is perfect is less important than the direction of travel: when downstream manufacturers start redesigning products to reduce metal content, you are no longer just in a paper market rally. You are in a rally that is colliding with physical reality.

Below is a trader’s framework for what is happening, why bullion markets have behaved the way they have, what could keep the trend alive, and what could end it abruptly. I’ll also incorporate the specific “more room to run” arguments now being made by banks and market commentators, including forecasts that put gold at $6,000 or higher and silver at $150.

1) The Gold Move: More Than Inflation, More Than Geopolitics, It’s a Confidence Trade

Gold’s run is being powered by three reinforcing engines:

• The policy and geopolitics risk premium is back, and it is sticky

Reuters recently summarized the market narrative succinctly: gold’s surge has been tied to escalating geopolitical tensions and demand from central banks and retail investors, with analysts floating $6,000 to even higher levels in 2026 under continued stress. In trader terms, this is not just “fear.” It is the repricing of tail risk when the range of outcomes widens and markets cannot confidently discount the future.

• Central bank demand remains a structural bid under the market

Central bank buying has been a defining feature of the post 2022 gold market, and it has not gone away. The World Gold Council’s monthly reporting has continued to show elevated buying, with one recent update noting net central bank purchases and emphasizing that buying has remained high versus earlier periods.

This is crucial because central bank demand is typically price insensitive compared with tactical ETF flows. Central banks buy for reserve composition, sanctions risk mitigation, and long duration trust. That demand can create a “harder floor” under dips, which changes how speculators behave. If every pullback is met by steady sovereign accumulation, volatility compressions can be followed by sharp breakouts when leveraged money re engages.

• The “bonds failed as the hedge” problem has redirected institutional flows

One of the more important observations in the FT coverage is the idea that investors are less comfortable relying on government bonds as the default safe haven, which has pushed incremental hedging demand toward gold. This matters because it reframes gold from a tactical inflation hedge to a strategic portfolio insurance asset. When that shift takes hold, allocations change slowly but persistently, and rebalancing itself becomes a tailwind.

2) Why Bullion Feels Different This Time: It’s Not Only Futures, It’s Real Bars and Coins

A paper rally can happen quickly and reverse quickly. A physical tightness rally tends to behave differently: it can gap, it can stay elevated, and it can transmit stress into premiums, lease rates, and delivery optionality.

Here is what traders look for:

• ETF and bar and coin demand tends to reinforce spot once it turns

Reuters noted strong ETF inflows as part of the gold story. In practice, sustained ETF buying turns the bullion market into a consistent buyer of physical metal (directly or indirectly through the creation mechanism). That can tighten the “available float” of deliverable bars relative to hedging needs.

• The physical market matters most when confidence wobbles

Gold’s appeal is simple: it has no credit risk. Reuters explicitly tied gold’s continued strength case to persistent investment demand and the desire for non dollar real assets, with Deutsche Bank cited for a $6,000 call in 2026. When investors are buying that story, they often prefer bullion exposure that feels “real,” which can widen premiums and reduce the willingness of holders to lend metal back into the market.

3) Silver’s Surge: When an Industrial Metal Becomes a Monetary Metal Again

Silver is simultaneously a precious metal and an industrial input. That dual identity is exactly why it can move so violently.

• Structural deficits have been building for years

The Silver Institute has been explicit that the market has been running structural deficits for multiple years, including a statement that 2025 would mark the fifth successive deficit, with a sizable estimated shortfall and a large cumulative deficit across 2021 to 2025. Regardless of the exact deficit number any one forecaster prints, the key takeaway is that inventories are not infinitely elastic. If above ground stocks are being drawn down year after year, the market is vulnerable to any demand shock or supply disruption.

• Solar is the lightning rod, and the market is telling you so

The FT’s reporting connected the silver price shock directly to solar manufacturing economics and the industry’s push to reduce or eliminate silver usage in certain cell technologies. That is the market’s signal that the price is high enough to trigger substitution behavior, which is both bullish and bearish depending on timing.

Bullish because it confirms genuine tightness and unavoidable near term demand.
Bearish because demand destruction is the classic endgame of parabolic commodity rallies.

• Silver’s monetary beta turns on when gold breaks out

When gold is grinding higher, silver often lags.
When gold breaks out and the narrative shifts to currency confidence and macro hedging, silver often plays catch up fast, because it is cheaper per ounce, more volatile, and easier for speculative capital to move. That is why silver is often described as “gold with leverage.”

4) The Expert Bull Case: Why Some Believe There Is Still More Room, Including $6,000 Gold and $150 Silver

Your question asked specifically for commentary and notations from experts arguing there is more upside and citing targets of roughly $6,000 for gold and $150 for silver. There are credible references for both in current coverage.

Gold: $6,000 is now an on the record bank level target

Reuters has reported that Deutsche Bank sees gold climbing to $6,000 per ounce in 2026, citing persistent investment demand and ongoing allocation toward non dollar real assets. Separately, Reuters also summarized broader analyst expectations that gold could climb further toward $6,000, with some forecasts reaching beyond that depending on how geopolitical and policy risks evolve.

From a trading perspective, the logic behind those targets is not mystical:

• A continuing bid from central banks and reserve managers reduces downside convexity.
• If real yields decline or the dollar weakens further, the opportunity cost of holding gold drops.
• If fiscal or geopolitical outcomes widen the distribution of tail risks, the “insurance premium” embedded in gold rises.

Put differently, $6,000 is a plausible expression of a regime where gold is being repriced as an alternative reserve asset, not merely a commodity.

Silver: Citi has put $150 on the table in the near term

Investing.com reported Citi lifting its 0 to 3 month target for silver to $150, describing another 30 to 40 percent upside in coming weeks and pointing to relative value dynamics versus gold. That matters because it is not a fringe blog call. It is a major bank framing the rally as a flows plus tightness story that can extend before relative valuation signals flash red.

How does a trader translate that into a mechanism?

• Silver’s available float is smaller than gold’s, so incremental investment flows move price more.
• If physical supply is tight outside key hubs, short term squeezes can occur in deliverable locations.
• Momentum strategies and options hedging can amplify upside once key levels break.

And importantly, silver has a visible industrial narrative (solar, electronics, electrification) that makes it easier for investors to justify chasing the move. Even if some of that demand is price sensitive, the near term in commodities often belongs to flow, not equilibrium.

5) The Counterweight: Serious Voices Warning This Could Be a Blow Off

A professional summary should not ignore the other side. Commodities do not move in straight lines, especially when price is doing something “historic.”

Business Insider highlighted a bearish warning from former JPMorgan quant chief Marko Kolanovic, who argued silver could plunge sharply over the next year, pointing to bubble like dynamics, recycling response, and the risks of chasing parabolic moves. Whether or not one agrees with the magnitude, the caution is directionally valid: extreme moves invite supply response, substitution, and positioning risk.

On the physical side, the FT also implicitly sketches the ceiling mechanism: if silver becomes too large a portion of solar module costs, the industry will redesign away from it. That is exactly how commodity markets self correct, though the correction can arrive after prices overshoot.

6) A Trader’s Roadmap: What Would Keep the Rally Alive, and What Would Break It

What keeps the upside alive

1. Continued dollar weakness and falling real yields
   Gold responds powerfully when the market senses easier financial conditions ahead or reduced confidence in fiat purchasing power. The FT explicitly tied the latest record to a slide in the dollar.
2. Persistent central bank buying and reserve diversification
   This is the slow moving structural force that underwrites dips.
3. ETF and retail bullion inflows that do not fade on pullbacks
   Reuters emphasized ETF inflows in gold. If similar flow persists in silver, the upside can extend quickly due to market size and liquidity constraints.
4. Physical tightness signals, including stressed supply chains
   The solar industry’s scramble to adapt to high silver prices is a real economy signal that demand and supply are colliding.

What breaks it

1. A credible shift toward tighter monetary expectations
   If markets suddenly price higher policy rates for longer, gold’s opportunity cost rises and leveraged longs can unwind.
2. A risk on pivot that restores faith in bonds as the hedge
   If government bonds resume their traditional role as the first safe haven, some capital can rotate out of bullion.
3. Demand destruction and substitution in silver’s industrial channels
   At high enough prices, the world innovates around expensive inputs. The FT notes exactly that dynamic in solar.
4. A positioning unwind
   Fast moves create crowded trades. If volatility spikes and margins rise, forced liquidations can cascade.

7) What the $6,000 Gold and $150 Silver Targets Really Mean in Portfolio Terms

It is tempting to treat these numbers as “predictions.” A better way to read them is as scenario markers.

• $6,000 gold is a statement that the world may be repricing reserve assets under higher geopolitical fragmentation and ongoing de dollarization pressures, with central banks and institutions willing to hold a larger portion of reserves in gold.
• $150 silver is a statement that silver’s smaller market, structural deficits, and intense industrial relevance can produce squeeze conditions where price overshoots fundamental fair value, especially if investor flows accelerate and physical availability tightens.

As an operator in bullion or coins, the practical implication is that volatility is not a side issue. It is the main issue. In these regimes, spreads widen, premiums can detach from spot, hedging costs rise, and inventory management becomes more important than “being right” on direction.

Practical Takeaways for Bullion Buyers and Traders

• Treat gold as the macro anchor and silver as the high beta expression of the same thesis. Gold often leads the regime shift, silver often expresses the manic phase.
• Watch substitution and thrifting headlines in solar and electronics for early signs of silver demand elasticity.
• Respect the possibility of air pockets. Even in a bull market, silver can fall hard and fast.
• If you are underwriting inventory risk in physical, assume premiums and delivery optionality can matter as much as spot, especially when institutional flows accelerate.

Gold and Silver’s 2026 Melt Up: Drivers, Bullion Signals, and Why Some Analysts Still See Higher Targets

Prepared from a commodities trading perspective. Updated: January 28, 2026.

Overview

Precious metals have entered a macro driven repricing cycle that often starts as a safe haven bid, then becomes a flows story, and finally begins to stress real world supply chains. In late January 2026, major outlets reported gold printing fresh record highs above $5,000 and then moving materially higher, with coverage highlighting dollar weakness and renewed doubts about bonds as the default hedge.

Source:

Financial Times (gold record highs): https://www.ft.com/content/6fcdb700-96d1-4ee4-88fd-b0b4e4a73c0a?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Silver has joined the move with far more torque. Coverage described silver in triple digits and noted pressure on end users, including solar manufacturers, and the resulting substitution and thrifting behavior that tends to appear only when the physical market is tight.

Source:

Financial Times (silver impact on solar): https://www.ft.com/content/2c210e5a-d0fb-44be-87cc-8a9ded55baf6

1) The Gold Move: Confidence Trade, Not Just Inflation

Gold’s run is being powered by a returning risk premium and by structural buying. When tail risks widen and investors become less confident that bonds hedge risk effectively, incremental hedging demand often shifts toward gold.

Supporting coverage:

Financial Times (safe haven narrative): https://www.ft.com/content/6fcdb700-96d1-4ee4-88fd-b0b4e4a73c0a

Central bank demand remains a key underwriter. The World Gold Council has continued to report net central bank purchases and elevated buying versus earlier periods, reinforcing the idea of a structural bid that can reduce downside convexity.

Supporting data:

World Gold Council (central bank stats): https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/01/central-bank-gold-statistics-buying-momentum-continues-november

2) Bullion Behavior: Physical Matters When Confidence Wobbles

A paper rally can reverse quickly. A physical tightness rally tends to behave differently: it can gap, it can stay elevated, and it can transmit stress into premiums, lease rates, and delivery optionality. Sustained ETF and retail demand tends to reinforce spot once it turns.

3) Silver’s Surge: Industrial Metal With Monetary Beta

Silver’s dual identity is why it can move violently. Structural deficits can leave the market vulnerable to demand shocks, while investor flows can overwhelm available float in the short term.

Supporting data:

Silver Institute (structural deficits): https://silverinstitute.org/the-silver-market-is-on-course-for-fifth-successive-structural-market-deficit/

When downstream industries begin redesigning products to reduce metal content, you are no longer in a simple futures-led rally. You are in a rally colliding with the real economy.

Supporting coverage:

Financial Times (solar substitution): https://www.ft.com/content/2c210e5a-d0fb-44be-87cc-8a9ded55baf6

4) The ‘More Room to Run’ Case: $6,000 Gold and $150 Silver

On the bullish side, Reuters reported bank and analyst commentary suggesting gold could have further upside under continued geopolitical stress, central bank buying, and investor rotation toward real assets, with $6,000 frequently cited as a plausible 2026 marker in a continued risk regime.

Source:

Reuters (gold has more room to run): https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-has-more-room-run-geopolitics-cenbank-buying-fuel-gains-analysts-say-2026-01-26/

For silver, market reporting has highlighted bank commentary that short term upside can extend sharply due to the metal’s smaller market, higher volatility, and sensitivity to flows. Investing.com reported Citi lifting a near term silver target to $150, framing it as a continuation of momentum and relative value dynamics.

Source:

Investing.com (Citi lifts silver target): https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/citi-lifts-silver-prices-target-says-move-to-300-is-extremely-unlikely-4467933

5) The Counterweight: Why Blow-Off Risk Is Real

Even in bull markets, parabolic moves invite supply response, substitution, and positioning risk. Business Insider summarized a bearish warning that emphasized bubble-like dynamics and the possibility of sharp declines once momentum breaks.

Source:

Business Insider (warning on silver): https://www.businessinsider.com/silver-prices-outlook-marko-kolanovic-jpmorgan-plunge-gold-metals-rally-2026-1

6) Trader Roadmap: What Extends the Rally vs What Ends It

What can keep the upside alive:

• Dollar weakness and/or falling real yields, reducing gold’s opportunity cost.
• Ongoing central bank purchases that provide a structural bid.
• Sustained ETF and retail inflows that tighten available float.
• Physical tightness signals and downstream stress (premiums, delays, substitution headlines).

What can break it:

• A credible swing toward tighter monetary expectations.
• A risk-on pivot that restores bonds as the dominant hedge.
• Demand destruction and substitution in silver-intensive industries.
• A positioning unwind triggered by margin increases or volatility spikes.