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Gold Allocation: What Leading Experts Recommend

Bullion Bankers Market Intelligence

Gold Allocation: The Experts’ Opinion

How much gold or physical precious metals should a portfolio hold? Recent public commentary from major macro investors,
institutional CIOs and precious-metals specialists spans from a mid-single-digit hedge to 20%–25% high-conviction allocations.
The common theme is increasingly clear: gold is being discussed not simply as a commodity, but as a strategic portfolio asset.

Institutional / Core Hedge
≈5%

Gold used primarily as a diversification and portfolio-insurance sleeve.

Strategic Allocation
10–15%

The strongest concentration across multiple investors and precious-metals specialists.

High-Conviction / Regime Hedge
20–25%

Typically tied to concerns about inflation, sovereign debt, currencies or reduced confidence in bonds.

Allocation Snapshot

Public statements & research • 2024–2026

Investor / Institution Allocation Exposure Type
Mark Haefele / UBS CIO Mid-single digit Bullion / Gold
World Gold Council 5% center; 2–10% range Gold
Ray Dalio 5–15% Gold exposure
Jeffrey Gundlach 10% current Gold
Mark Mobius At least 10% Physical Gold
Jim Rickards ≈10% Physical Gold + Silver
Sprott Asset Management 10% + 0–5% Physical Gold + Gold Equities
Thomas Kertsos / First Eagle 10–15% Gold
Ronald-Peter Stöferle 10–15% Physical Gold / Gold Space
Peter Schiff 10–20% Physical Precious Metals
Mike Wilson / Morgan Stanley 20% Gold
Michael Hartnett / BofA 25% in 2025 model Gold

What the Experts Are Saying

Each profile summarizes the public allocation, the investor’s rationale, whether the recommendation explicitly refers to physical bullion,
and the primary source material behind the statement.

Macro Investor

Ray Dalio

Founder, Bridgewater Associates • Global macro investor and author on debt cycles and monetary systems

Target5–15%

Gold exposure
Strategic allocation
Debt-cycle hedge

“between 5% and 15%”

Dalio frames gold less as a short-term price trade and more as a strategic monetary asset that can diversify stocks, bonds and fiat currencies.

  • Diversification from stocks, bonds and fiat currencies.
  • Protection against sovereign-debt and monetary-system stress.
  • Gold has no issuing government whose solvency determines its survival.
  • Central-bank accumulation supports its role as a reserve asset.
Sources & context
Wall Street CIO

Mike Wilson

Morgan Stanley • Chief U.S. Equity Strategist / Chief Investment Officer

Target20%

60 / 20 / 20
Gold
Bond substitute thesis

“Gold is now the anti-fragile asset to own, rather than Treasuries.”

Wilson’s 60% stocks / 20% bonds / 20% gold framework represents one of the clearest recent institutional challenges to the traditional 60/40 portfolio.

  • Gold can perform part of the defensive role historically assigned to bonds.
  • Long-duration government bonds may be less reliable in an inflationary or fiscally stressed environment.
  • Safe-haven demand and declining real rates can support gold.
  • His recommendation refers to gold broadly, not specifically physical coins or bars.
Sources & context
Fixed-Income Investor

Jeffrey Gundlach

Founder & CEO, DoubleLine Capital • Prominent bond and macro investor

Current10%

Gold
Real assets
Rebalancing discipline

“I’m now up to 10% gold again.”

Gundlach’s recent comments are notable because he described moving from roughly 25% gold to 5% after a substantial run, then rebuilding to 10% after a correction.

  • Concern over expensive equity valuations.
  • Inflation risk and the role of real assets.
  • Gold as part of a broader 20% real-assets sleeve.
  • Demonstrates rebalancing rather than chasing price momentum.
Sources & context
Global Wealth Management

Mark Haefele / UBS

Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management

TargetMid-single

Bullion
Institutional hedge
Diversifier

“a mid-single-digit portfolio allocation to bullion as optimal.”

UBS represents the conservative institutional end of the spectrum: gold as portfolio insurance and diversification, but not a dominant asset class.

  • Historically low correlation with equities and bonds.
  • Potential hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
  • Central-bank demand and possible dollar weakness.
  • Government-debt concerns and declining real-rate scenarios.
Sources & context
Global Investor

Mark Mobius

Emerging-markets investing pioneer • Longtime global portfolio manager

Target≥10%

Physical Gold
Store of value
Gradual buying

“people should allocate at least 10% of their portfolio to gold.”

Mobius explicitly emphasized physical gold, while also cautioning that strategic conviction does not eliminate the importance of valuation and entry price.

  • Long history as money and a store of value.
  • Protection against currency erosion and monetary expansion.
  • Preference for physical ownership rather than financial representation alone.
  • Favored gradual purchases rather than trying to perfectly time the market.
Sources & context
Precious-Metals Strategist

Jim Rickards

Author and macro strategist focused on monetary systems, currencies and gold

Target≈10%

Physical Gold + Silver
Coins & bars
Monetary hedge

“approximately 10% of investible assets in precious metals.”

Rickards’ published framework explicitly favors physical precious metals, including coins and bullion bars, as an asymmetric hedge against severe monetary outcomes.

  • No intrinsic credit risk in physical metal itself.
  • Protection from currency-confidence shocks and monetary instability.
  • Gold and silver play somewhat different monetary and industrial roles.
  • The 2024 publication reflects a framework he has advocated over a longer period.
Sources & context
Institutional Precious Metals

Sprott Asset Management

Specialist investment manager focused on precious metals and real assets

Core + Tactical10% + 0–5%

10% Physical Gold
0–5% Gold Equities
Strategic + tactical

10% physical gold as the strategic core; 0–5% gold equities as a tactical sleeve.

Sprott offers one of the cleanest institutional distinctions between permanent physical bullion exposure and the more cyclical return potential of gold equities.

  • Physical gold as a store of value and systemic-risk hedge.
  • Allocated physical holdings do not depend on another issuer’s promise.
  • Gold equities can provide additional upside but add operating and market risks.
  • Useful model for separating “insurance gold” from “performance gold.”
Sources & context
Gold Fund Portfolio Manager

Thomas Kertsos

First Eagle Investments • Portfolio Manager, First Eagle Gold Fund

Sweet Spot10–15%

Gold
Capital preservation
Diversification

“the sweet spot is between 10% to 15%.”

Kertsos argues that below 10% gold may not materially change portfolio behavior in a crisis, while above 15% increasingly becomes a directional bet.

  • Can diversify assets that become highly correlated in stress periods.
  • Central-bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty support strategic demand.
  • Gold can hedge recession and financial-market instability.
  • He explicitly distinguishes bullion from mining-company risks.
Sources & context
Gold Research

Ronald-Peter Stöferle

Managing Partner, Incrementum AG • Co-author associated with the In Gold We Trust report

Target10–15%

Physical Gold
Outside banking system
Monetary hedge

“at least … 10% to 15% gold.”

Stöferle makes a particularly useful distinction: physical gold can serve as the monetary-insurance layer, while ETFs and mining shares may be treated as “performance gold.”

  • Protection of purchasing power.
  • Rising sovereign debt and monetary-system diversification.
  • Physical holdings can sit outside the traditional banking system.
  • A very small position may not provide enough protection during the event it was meant to hedge.
Sources & context
Precious-Metals Advocate

Peter Schiff

Chief economist / global strategist, Euro Pacific • Chairman, SchiffGold

Target10–20%

Physical Gold + Silver
Inflation hedge
Dollar-risk thesis

“10% to maybe even as much as 20% in physical precious metals.”

Schiff sits toward the high end of the physical-metals spectrum and ties the allocation closely to long-standing concerns about inflation, debt and fiat-currency purchasing power.

  • Potential erosion of real returns on cash and bonds.
  • High sovereign debt and limits on monetary tightening.
  • Physical metals are held outside the liability structure of conventional securities.
  • His view should be understood alongside his consistently skeptical outlook on fiat currencies.
Sources & context
Global Investment Strategy

Michael Hartnett / BofA

Bank of America investment strategist • Known for the Flow Show research

2025 Model25%

Gold
Permanent portfolio
Regime diversification

25% cash • 25% bonds • 25% gold • 25% stocks

Hartnett’s 2025 permanent-portfolio framework assigned one quarter to gold. Importantly, his 2026 iteration broadened that sleeve to commodities rather than gold alone.

  • Designed to reduce dependence on either stocks or bonds dominating returns.
  • Reflects inflation, fiscal and deglobalization concerns.
  • 2025’s 25% gold allocation should not be presented as a current universal BofA recommendation.
  • The 2026 version broadened the real-asset sleeve to commodities.
Sources & context
Institutional Research Benchmark

World Gold Council

Industry research organization publishing strategic gold-allocation and portfolio-impact studies

Strategic Center5%

2–10% range
Gold
Portfolio research

Approximately 5% as a strategic center, with a broader 2–10% range depending on investor objectives.

The World Gold Council provides a research-based benchmark rather than a single personality’s opinion, testing how different gold weights historically affected hypothetical portfolio risk and return.

  • Portfolio diversification and drawdown reduction.
  • Historical testing across multiple allocation levels.
  • Useful institutional baseline against which higher-conviction allocations can be compared.
  • Research is historical and does not guarantee future outcomes.
Sources & context
The Market Takeaway

The discussion has moved beyond the old “2–5%” rule.

10–15%

is the most noticeable concentration among the investors and precious-metals specialists surveyed here—although there is no universal consensus
and appropriate allocation depends on objectives, liquidity, volatility tolerance and the rest of the portfolio.

  • ≈5%: mainstream institutional hedge / diversification range.
  • 10–15%: meaningful strategic allocation repeatedly cited by specialists and macro investors.
  • 20–25%: high-conviction or regime-change frameworks, often tied to debt, inflation or reduced confidence in bonds.
  • Physical bullion matters: Mobius, Rickards, Schiff, Stöferle and Sprott explicitly distinguish physical precious metals from generic financial gold exposure.
  • Silver is usually included inside a broader precious-metals sleeve: mainstream institutional research rarely publishes a separate stand-alone silver percentage.
  • No percentage is universally “correct”: these are documented public viewpoints and research frameworks, not individualized recommendations.

Research note: Allocation figures shown above summarize cited public statements and institutional research. Some recommendations refer to gold broadly,
while others specifically reference physical bullion or physical precious metals. Bullion Bankers does not present these opinions as individualized investment advice.
Precious metals can fluctuate in value and may involve premiums, spreads, storage, insurance, liquidity and tax considerations.

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